New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars 12/23/2012

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The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 84% of simulations over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Tom Brady is averaging 291 passing yards and 2.33 TDs per simulation and Stevan Ridley is projected for 54 rushing yards and a 34% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 16% of simulations where Jacksonville Jaguars wins, Chad Henne averages 1.62 TD passes vs 0.74 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.06 TDs to 1.33 interceptions. Montell Owens averages 46 rushing yards and 0.38 rushing TDs when Jacksonville Jaguars wins and 30 yards and 0.16 TDs in losses. The New England Patriots have a 62% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 92% of the time.
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